Final balance: How much did participants make?



Distribution and histogram of participants’ final balance based on deterministic vs. probabilistic forecasts


How many participants benefited from probabilistic forecasts?



Histogram of participants’ final balance based on probabilistic minus the balance based on deterministic forecasts









Correct decisions: How many decisions were correct?



Proportion of correct decisions based on deterministic vs. probabilistic forecasts









Change of mind: How often did participants change their mind?



Proportion of changed decisions based on the probabilistic forecast

Across all decisions, participants changed their mind in 18 % of the situations.

On an individual level, 91 % of the participants changed their mind at least once based on the probabilistic forecast.









Risky decisions: How often did participants trade 100% (risky choice)?



Proportion of risky decisions ("trading 100%)









Preferences: Which forecasts are preferred?



Histogram of participants’ preferred information


No one preferred to make decisions based on deterministic power forecast alone.

Ranking: Participants’ final balance in Euro



The table can be sorted by how much a participant made based on the deterministic or probabilistic forecast.


Other information: What did participants want?